It’s been a couple of weeks since the treaty between… well, between Iran and the Western World. And it’s not a done deal yet, nor well appreciated (although what could happen if it falls through is not good).
Things to consider:
- Countries make treaties with enemies. That way they can, in the future, just be agreements.
- Iranians want the same material things the West wants. And with materialism, as the extremists in ALL religions say while gesticulating wildly, come “Western ways.” Which translates to a yearning for the freedom to pursue one’s passion.
- I daresay that the ramblings of the religious in the United States as well as Iran sound amazingly similar.
- Ten years is a long time. The Middle East has government-level issues that, by then, will make regional supremacy a different issue. Fighting over water, fresh water, will be critical. Israel’s water supply is already tapped. The Mediterranean Sea is nine times saltier than the Atlantic so it’s not a source. Power will be an issue to compensate for a much larger economy, and fortunately, Iran has all the raw material for making nuclear power plants. Which are far more attractive than nuclear weapons for Iran’s GDP, which, now that there looks to be a deal, will be important to them.
DAESH is slowly, painfully, being pried out of Tikrit. Instead of America’s fanciful and impossible-to-execute idea of strengthened Iraqi battalions of mixed-sect soldiers with “Coalition” support, it’s a Badr/Sadr/Iranian action with a boisterous Iraqi tagging along. This is how it seems to me, an outsider in faith and geography. But it’s clear to me, with my military background, that Americans can’t be much in play, not if they’re busy not talking with Iranian forces led by a general who’s made life miserable for the West, thwarting plans of Israelis and Americans alike in the Syrian debacle.
Now comes the test of Iran as a nation-state: how will they treat the Iraqi citizens of Tikrit. Yes, it’s Saddam al Tikriti’s home town. And yes, it’s a pure Sunni city. Will this turn into a revenge trip, continuing the cycle of violence? Or will the Iranian military take the moral high ground and truly free the city, and not merely conquer and subjugate its inhabitants. The telling of that story will determine whether this is Iran’s honest attempt to behave more like a nation of laws, or whether it’s yet another defilade in its pure power war with the Sunni and moderate Islamic Middle East — and the West. And General Qasem Soleimani holds the key to Iranian’s future in its dealing with the West.